Quantifying the uncertainty in agent-based models (aka what the *$&^% is going on in my model and why?)
My colleague Alison and I recently gave a keynote presentation to the ESSA Social Simulation Fest 2021 called Quantifying the uncertainty in agent-based models (aka what the @$&^% is going on in my model and why?). We talked about some of the agent-based modelling work that we (and our colleagues) are doing, particularly with respect to understanding the uncertainties in our models. The full abstract is:
Agent-based modelling is maturing as a method for capturing and simulating individual behaviour and activity. Whilst there are a dazzling array of applications appearing in the literature, there is less work that focusses on important methodological issues such as the handling of uncertainty in these models. We discuss (and demonstrate) how approaches from the field of Uncertainty Quantification can be adapted for use in agent-based models so that models can become robust enough to be used in important policy decisions.